Brexit economic impact: UK trade with EU declines, business investment falls, studies show

Ten years after the 2016 Brexit referendum, UK data shows declines in goods trade with the EU, reduced business investment, and a loss of trade variety, according to official figures and academic studies.

• Official data shows UK goods exports to the EU were 14% lower in 2025 than in 2019, and imports were 10% lower.
• Stanford economist Nick Bloom said the UK economy lost 6-8% of per capita output due to Brexit, attributing half the impact to harder trade with the EU and half to political uncertainty.
• The number of trucks using the Channel Tunnel fell by nearly 30%, from 1.64 million in 2016 to 1.16 million in 2025.
• Studies by the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Aston University Business School found reductions in the variety of UK exports to the EU of 26% and 53.8%, respectively.