China reaffirms no-first-use nuclear doctrine as SIPRI estimates arsenal at 620 warheads

China has retained its policy of no-first-use and minimum nuclear deterrence while Western assessments indicate a growing warhead stockpile and missile infrastructure.

• The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated China’s nuclear arsenal reached 620 warheads by January 2026, adding 90 in 2023–2024 and 100 in 2024–2025.
• In 2024, China launched an unarmed DF-31AG intercontinental ballistic missile toward the Pacific, its first such test since 1980, according to Chinese media.
• During a September 2025 military parade, China displayed its nuclear triad for the first time, including air-launched, submarine-launched, and land-based missiles.
• Chinese officials refused US calls for tripartite arms control talks, describing them as “unfair, unreasonable, and unrealistic,” and said the US and Russia bear primary responsibility for disarmament.